Cautious Consumers Drive Same Store Sales Growth for Youth and Value Retailers

COLUMBUS, OH—7/27/2010 – Back to school sales forecasts are up (albeit mostly out of necessity for parents to replenish their children’s needs) and same store sales predictions for select youth and value-oriented retailers that offer value are benefiting, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Overall, the outlook is mixed as more retailers (15) have fallen into the likely decline/almost certain decline category than in June (14).

Total Number for Retailers Tracked  

JULY-2010      JUNE-2010  
Almost certain increase*      6  /  4
Likely increase      5  /  5
Flat      1  /  4
Likely decline     12  /  8
Almost certain decline    3  /  6
*An “almost certain increase” indicator for July means that in August and September, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

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Indicators for August and September forecast that youth specialty retailer Aeropostale is almost certain to see growth in same store sales. Value-based Ross and TJX are almost certain to see growth as well.

Abercrombie & Fitch, Children’s Place and Fred’s are likely to experience an increase in same store sales over last year. Warehouse clubs are also poised to see growth through September (Costco is almost certain to and BJ’s is likely.)

It does appear, however, that some retailers that target the younger market are going to have a less-than-stellar back to school season. American Eagle, Buckle, Hot Topic, Old Navy, and Wet Seal are all likely to see a decline in same store sales.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through July follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     

Almost certain to see decline:

Likely to see increase          
Abercrombie & Fitch       
Children’s Place      

Likely to see decline:
American Eagle
Hot Topic
JC Penney
Neiman Marcus
Old Navy
Wet Seal

Banana Republic

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Phil Rist

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